Experts are baffled. The Middle East is ablaze with conflicts and bombs again are falling in Iraq, yet the price of raw petroleum is sinking, a stark change from past periods of turmoil when prices soared.
When the United States began bombing Iraq during its 2003 invasion, for example, market prices exploded and subsequently rose by a third over pre-invasion rates. Not this time. The price for a barrel (42 gallons) of North Sea Brent oil has fallen by almost 10 percent this year and on Thursday fell below the psychologically significant $100 per barrel.
It’s a bewildering turn of events as the civil war in Syria grinds on. Libya is wracked with internal turmoil, the Gaza strip conflict between Israel and the Palestinians festers and U.S. warplanes are bombing Islamic State fighters in northern Iraq.
At the moment, players in the raw oil market are completely overshadowing the hot spots in the Middle East. “The market has become crisis weary,” said Axel Herlinghaus, senior commodities analyst at DZ Bank AG, noting that speculators have withdrawn from the oil business.
While oil-dependent industries are thrilled by the price decline, it is unwise to embrace the euphoria. The calm in the market is largely due to a fortunate combination of events. Combat in Iraq and Libya, at least so far, is being waged far from areas where oil drilling operations are based. Additionally, global demand is weakening. The once oil-addicted United States has now almost achieved energy self-sufficiency because of its shale gas exploration efforts.