12:08 A.M. in Washington, DC, 06:08 A.M. in Berlin
Daily Summary – November 7
11:10 P.M. in Washington, DC, 05:10 A.M. in Berlin
Their answer? Actually not very much, according to W. David Braun, a business lawyer. At the end of the day, business will continue to hum along regardless.
“There may be barriers, there may be perceptions, but if the market is interesting, the market will go there. Germany has done so in a very strong way,” said Mr. Braun, a business lawyer and partner at U.S. law firm Quarles & Brady, which advises German businesses with operations in the United States.
“Generally speaking, the election is not going to have a dramatic impact on investments or even trade. My clients come here not for a few years but come here because the customers are here,” Mr. Braun said.
Not everyone on the panel agrees. The United States last year became Germany’s top export market, with German businesses shipping $125 billion to America. This position could easily be lost again due to anti-trade sentiments on both sides of the Atlantic, said Daniel Andrich, representative of German Industry and Trade in Washington D.C.
“I am not that optimistic if you look at the current situation. I just moved to Washington, D.C. from Berlin, where some 100,000 demonstrated against free trade and against free trade with the U.S.,” Mr. Andrich said.
“I’ve been listening to the presidential campaigns with some pretty worrying language from obviously Mr. Trump but also from Ms. Clinton to some extent. So, am I worried, yes a little,” Mr. Andrich said. “It is very hard to reach the top, but much harder to stay at the top.”
10:20 P.M. in Washington, DC, 4:20 A.M. in Berlin
Trump’s Greatest Hits
A long line builds at the entrance to the sports arena in Manchester, New Hampshire, where Donald Trump and Mike Pence are making their penultimate appearance of the 2016 election. About 10,000 people fit inside, where the atmosphere is alternating between aggressive shouts of “lock her up” and a party with rock music.
Donald Trump has not only brought his running mate Mike Pence. He’s brought his entire family to this rally. He gets a long standing ovation as he enters the hall.
His speech touched on many of the highlights of the last year. The biggest hit, as ever, is Mr. Trump’s mention of building a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico. And who will pay for it? “Mexico!” the crowd shouts back with glee. And Hillary Clinton? Despite the FBI’s announcement that it won’t recommend her prosecution, Mr. Trump maintains she is the “most corrupt” candidate ever to run for office.
Like Hillary Clinton, there is one more stop tonight for the Republican hopeful: Grand Rapids, Michigan.
9:40 P.M. in Washington, DC, 3:40 A.M. in Berlin
Clinton’s Penultimate Rally in Philadelphia
With just hours to go until election day, Hillary Clinton held her penultimate rally in Philadelphia after a more than a year of campaigning. The Democratic candidate told her supporters that America’s “core values” are at stake.
“There’s a choice between division and unity, between an economy for everyone or only those at the top, between strong steady leadership or a loose cannon who could put everything at risk, our core values are being tested in this election,” Ms. Clinton said.
A final rally will be held at midnight in North Carolina, another key swing state that could well decide the election on Tuesday.
9:05 P.M. in Washington, DC, 3:05 A.M. in Berlin
Fearing uncertainty in case of Trump victory
Donald Trump as president could trigger a trade war and affect financial markets if he significantly increases the U.S. government deficit, an investment expert told Handelsblatt.
“Wall Street probably thinks that Ms. Clinton is the much more predictable of the two candidates,” said Helge Petermann, a managing director at River Street Capital. “On the other hand, with Mr. Trump there will be uncertainty about what he might do. There are concerns he might kick off a trade war, which would not be good. There are also worries that spending would increase the deficit, which markets don’t like.”
8:45 P.M. in Washington, DC, 2:45 A.M. in Berlin
Growing U.S. Bi-Partisan Consensus for TTIP, Says Former Ambassador to Germany
There is a growing bi-partisan consensus among U.S. legislators in favor of the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership or TTIP despite the fierce protectionist rhetoric of the presidential campaign, said the former U.S. ambassador to Germany.
“The American legislators feel that it would be raising U.S. standards including on wages which is one of the reasons why it’s a concern in Europe,” Bob Kimmitt, who also served as deputy secretary of the treasury under President George W. Bush, said at Handelsblatt’s U.S. election camp in Washington D.C.
The growing anti-trade sentiment in Europe that has held up the Canadian trade deal, known as CETA, could pose a challenge to TTIP, the ambassador said. Mr. Kimmitt called on the White House and the European Commission to finalize the deal before French and German elections next year.
“CETA, I think that was the first round of the TTIP endgame fight,” Mr. Kimmitt said. “My own recommendation to the administration and the commission would be to try to push this thing through to completion.”
— Handelsblatt Global (@HandelsblattGE) November 7, 2016
8:30 P.M. in Washington, DC, 2:30 A.M. in Berlin
A President Trump Could Lead the Fed to Raise Rates Sooner
Donald Trump’s economic plans could lead to a substantial stimulus for the United States and prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates faster than expected, a top Deutsche Bank and former Fed economist told Handelsblatt on Monday.
“If we could do away with Trump’s uncertainties around trade policy, the potential disruptions around immigration policy, then yes, large sizeable tax cuts, deregulation and other incentives to business would clearly be a plus,” said Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank’s U.S. subsidiary, Deutsche Bank Securities.
Mr. Hooper is also co-head of Deutsche Bank’s global economics team and had a 26-year career at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. He was an economist on the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s body which determines monetary policy.
“On large tax cuts Trump has not really identified much in the way of spending cuts to offset that so you are looking potentially at a very large fiscal stimulus,” Mr. Hooper told Handelsblatt’s U.S. Election Camp in Washington, D.C. “That kind of fiscal stimulus would move the Fed into a much more aggressive path of rate increases.”
If he becomes president, Mr. Trump aims to invest up to $1 trillion in infrastructure to repair and upgrade U.S. roads, but he has not specified where spending would be cut substantially.
“It would likely mean a substantially stronger appreciation of the dollar; it could have some disruptive effects globally,” Mr. Hooper said. “There are clearly substantial positives in elements of what Trump is talking about potentially for the business sector, but if it is going to mean a substantially more aggressive Fed tightening and if we have not dealt with uncertainty around trade policies and other issues then there could be some substantial negative off-sets here.”
5:30 P.M. in Washington, DC, 11:30 P.M. in Berlin
In this election, what matters to me most is…
We went out into the town of Edgemere, Maryland, to ask people which issue mattered most to them in deciding which way to vote.
5:05 P.M. in Washington, DC, 11:05 P.M. in Berlin
Both presidential candidates might prove tough partners for Russia
Experts agree that relations between Russia and the United States are troubled – but they don’t agree on what’s next.
Hannah Thorburn, Russia expert and research fellow at the conservative policy think tank Hudson Institute, told Handelsblatt Global that people tend to think Donald Trump would get on well with Vladimir Putin but that might not necessarily be the case. If they disagree, she said, then the conflict might be hard to resolve.
But Ms. Thoburn said she expected Hillary Clinton to take a tougher line on Russia too.
4:16 P.M. in Washington, DC, 10:18 P.M. in Berlin
U.S. Election Night Live Coverage from Washington & Berlin
Rarely has a U.S. election campaign attracted as much attention, mystification, perplexity, and worry as the presidential race of 2016 – in the United States and abroad.
After two years of a highly-polarized and populist campaign, the final countdown is on and will reach its peak Tuesday night. With our eyes set on this special event, we hope you will join us for live coverage from Washington and Berlin.
And from the German capital, we’ll keep you up to date from the official U.S. Election Night Party in Berlin, organized by the Aspen Institute and the Embassy of the United States of America, in cooperation with Handelsblatt.
— Handelsblatt Global (@HandelsblattGE) November 5, 2016
For our coverage live from Berlin, follow us here on the blog and at #USPresBerlin.
From both sides of the Atlantic, enjoy live election coverage and on-stage analysis by leading experts from both sides of the Atlantic, including the U.S. ambassador to Germany, John B. Emerson. We will analyze the election outcomes and discuss its potential effects on U.S. foreign, security, and economic policy as well as German and European hopes and expectations for the incoming American president.
3:05 P.M. in Washington, DC, 9:05 P.M. in Berlin
Local Initiatives: Weed, Single Payer, Capital Punishment and the 51st State
With the nation and the world’s attention laser-focused on the U.S. presidential campaign, it’s easy to overlook what’s happening at the state level on election day. But local ballot initiatives have the potential to change the face of America just as much, perhaps even more, than the presidential contest.
The federal government in the United States is infamously gridlocked, unable to pass major legislative initiatives since the era of divided government began in 2010. As a consequence, the states have increasingly taken matters into their owns.
The United States could wake up on November 9 to find that five additional states have legalized recreational marijuana, bringing the total to nine. Arizona, California, Maine and Massachusetts are all voting on marijuana legalization this year.
33 Things This Election Will Decide That Have Nothing to Do With Trump or Clinton https://t.co/e2XPGn8UbA
— Quinton (@Tabarik) November 7, 2016
Support for the death penalty is declining in the United States and California, the largest state by population, will vote on whether or not to abolish capital punishment this year. Nebraska, on the other hand, will vote on whether or not to reinstate the death penalty after having abolished it last year.
The western-swing state of Colorado could become the first jurisdiction in the United States to institute a tax-payer funded, universal, single-payer health care system. In another potential first-in-the-nation moment, Washington state is voting on whether or not to implement a tax on carbon emissions.
The nation’s capital could also move a step closer to becoming the 51st state. Though Washington DC will vote on statehood on Tuesday, actually joining the union as a full-fledged state would require either an act of Congress or a constitutional amendment.
1:58 P.M. in Washington, DC, 7:58 P.M. in Berlin
Global Views on the U.S. Election: Canada, Brazil, Germany, Britain and Israel
Handelsblatt correspondents from around the world share how people in the countries where they are based think about the U.S. Election. Today we hear from Canada, Brazil, Germany, U.K. and Israel.
1:40 P.M. in Washington, DC, 7:40 P.M. in Berlin
Clinton, Trump Supporters Unfriending Each Other on Social Media
Much has been made of how polarized the United States is this election season. Hillary Clinton infamously said 50 percent of Donald Trump’s supporters are “deplorables.” And many of Mr. Trump’s supporters chant “lock her up” at rallies, a call to send Ms. Clinton to prison.
Amid the heated rhetoric, Facebook friends who happen to support opposing candidates are unfriending each other. Seven percent of voters report losing friends on social media over the election campaign, according to a recent Monmouth University poll.
7% of voters report they either lost or ended a friendship because of this year’s presidential election: https://t.co/lsbmMwu8R7
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) November 6, 2016
Nine percent of Ms. Clinton’s supporters report hitting the unfriend button compared to 6 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters and 3 percent of other voters.
4:54 P.M. in Berlin, 10:54 A.M. in Washington, DC
Video: U.S. ambassador to Singapore on TPP and TTIP
4:19 P.M. in Berlin, 10:19 A.M. in Washington, DC
It’s not the first time Donald Trump has been compared to Hitler, but this time the comparison went viral just before the U.S. elections. A German Twitter user calling himself “Johan Franklin” posted a message on Friday titled “Dear Americans”.
Using the hashtag #beentheredonethat he warns U.S. citizens of voting for Donald Trump because of his alleged similarities to Adolf Hitler.
— Johan Franklin (@CrappyCrapson) November 4, 2016
German magazine Der Spiegel contacted the author who claims to be a German living in San Diego. He tells Spiegel, he created the post after seeing a forecast that put Mr. Trump’s chances of winning at 34 percent. He also stated, he is aware that making use of a comparison to Hitler “always is the dumbest thing to do”.
Yesterday, Johan Franklin took to Twitter yet again to post a clarification.
— Johan Franklin (@CrappyCrapson) November 6, 2016
3:41 P.M. in Berlin, 9:41 A.M. in Washington, DC
Obama’s Post-Oval Office Life
11:56 A.M. in Berlin, 5:56 A.M. in Washington, DC
Hoping for a Stalemate
Instead of change, Wall Street is hoping for stasis, writes Handelsblatt’s finance section chief.
2:10 A.M. in Washington, DC, 6:10 A.M. in Berlin
Midnight Rally. Read more from the November 6 edition of our blog.
Talk about campaigning through the night. Donald Trump appeared on stage near Leesburg, Virginia, shortly after the clocks turned from Sunday night to Monday morning. The Republican candidate issued one more plea to his supporters to turn out to the polls and get out the vote on Tuesday.
A victory for the Trump campaign on Tuesday would be like “Brexit times 50,” he said, referring not for the first time to the surprise “yes” vote in Britain’s June referendum over whether or not the country should leave the European Union.
— Daniel Schäfer (@schaeferdaniel) November 7, 2016
Mr. Trump’s campaign may have lost some momentum in the final days, after the FBI on Sunday confirmed they would not be recommending charges against Hillary Clinton.
Mr. Trump rejected the FBI’s findings, which came just over one week after the discovery of a new batch of emails related to her use of a private email server. Mr. Trump insisted it was impossible for the agency to have investigated the new emails in such a quick time frame.
“You can’t do it folks. Hillary Clinton is guilty,” he said at a stop in Michigan.