Cloudy Forecasts

Germany’s Roaring Economy, Despite Appearances, May Be Headed Lower

Slowdown in the German economy could lead to more employee unrest. Source: DPA
Slowdown in the German economy could lead to more employee unrest.
  • Why it matters

    Why it matters

    If downward trend continues, everyone will suffer.

  • Facts


    • The banks are lowering their expectations for growth.
    • Construction and industry production are among the economy’s weak spots.
    • Small-business owners’ optimism is diminishing.
  • Audio


  • Pdf

Germany’s economy has nothing to be ashamed about. But there are concerns about growth.

The gross domestic product is expected to increase in the year’s first half  by 0.75 percent. Consumer confidence is at a record high, and the labor market is relatively stable. Seasonally adjusted, there were 57,000 fewer unemployed people at July’s end than at the year’s start. The German government is getting along without new taxes because revenues are adequate.

But negative signals are multiplying. Government economists are tight-lipped. The banks are distancing themselves from their previous forecasts. Deutsche Bank now only expects 1.5 percent growth for the year, for example.

The trend is clearly downward. The Ifo Institute’s business climate index sank three times in a row, industry orders are coming in at a moderate rate and the recovery of industrial production was modest in June. Production rose in June, seasonally and price adjusted, by 0.3 percent above the previous month. The second quarter’s average was 1.5 percent below the previous quarter’s level.

Construction declined, too, as much as 5.8 percent. “The German economy is suffering from a summer flu,” said Marco Wagner of Commerzbank, and it appears uncertain as to how prolonged and serious it will be.

Want to keep reading?

Subscribe now or log in to read our coverage of Europe’s leading economy.