The coming year will be dominated by trade protectionism, nationalism and state intervention in industrial policy, according to a forecast by management consultancy Control Risks seen by Handelsblatt.
Charles Hecker, in charge of global analysis at the consultancy, said Western democracies are in danger of failing to emphasize the advantages of globalization to their citizens.
Two major free trade agreements, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, which are meant to bind the United States more closely with Asia and Europe, are likely to be the first casualties.
“It looks bad,” Mr. Hecker said. “Globalization has reached a limit.”
He warned that Western democracies are under pressure from populist groups all over the world. “Populism as practiced by Trump is the biggest political risk in the coming year,” he said.