Three different scenarios
Europe's Muslim population could nearly triple by 2050 if high levels of immigration, similar to those seen recently in Germany and Sweden, continue. The growth of Muslim populations in Europe necessarily leads to a statistical decline in non-Muslim residents. Even without continued immigration, the number of Muslims in Europe is projected to climb 39 percent to 35.8 million by 2050. That's equivalent to just under 7 percent of a European population that's expected to reach 514.8 million. Pew predicts the makeup of Europe's population would shift because Muslims are younger and have higher fertility rates than other Europeans.
Policies and cultures determine the future
Muslim populations are expected to grow unevenly throughout Europe because of differing cultural and political policies. Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland, for example, currently have fewer than 1 million Muslim residents but these populations are expected to grow significantly.
Europe was home to 25.8 million Muslims in 2016, or 4.9 percent of the population. The populations differ by country and dramatically so since the 2014-2015 influx of refugees.
Continued European immigration
This map assumes a mid-range level of immigration will continue in Europe through 2050. Pew defines mid-range as a stop to strong inflows of refugees but continued immigration of those not seeking asylum.
Continued strong immigration
Should liberal immigration policies, such as were seen recently in some parts of Europe, continue, Muslim populations could expand significantly in 33 years, though they would still be in the minority.
Most immigrants aren't refugees
Altough they grab most of the headlines, most recent immigrants to Europe weren't refugees. However, a larger percentage of immigrants were Muslim, supporting the changes Pew expects by 2050.