Price Precipice

DAX Set to Drop

Credit: DPA/ Frank Rumpenhorst
Experts predict a DAX slump.
  • Why it matters

    Why it matters

    The DAX has had a volatile start to the year and market experts warn things will get worse before they improve.

  • Facts

    Facts

    • The DAX’s 52-week high was 12,390 in April, 2015.
    • In just two weeks in January, the DAX slid by 11 percent.
    • Between 2000 and 2003, the DAX fell by 75 percent. In 2008 it fell 40 percent.
  • Audio

    Audio

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Four market watchers, who correctly predicted the performance of the DAX stock exchange for the last three years, now warn that the index will fall to 8,000 points this year.

Handelsblatt has asked a group of four analysts, who derive their predictions from price developments and trend-following models, to forecast the movement of the DAX exchange of Germany’s top 30 listed companies, since 2013. They correctly foresaw a 25 percent jump in 2013, a bullish 2014, and said correctly that the index would hit 11,000 in 2015.

This time they tell a bleaker tale: The DAX, which closed at 9,545 on Friday, will continue to fall to 8,000 points, they said.

Though none of them thinks all of those losses will come in a sudden landslide or that the kind of volatility seen since the beginning of January will continue. In just two weeks this month, the DAX lost more than 11 percent.

“An abrupt upward countermovement is possible and likely to come at any time,” said Dirk Oppermann of DZ Bank. But his message is: “Investors should use periods of recovery to sell shares and build liquidity.”

It’s a far cry from the near-12,000 prediction made by analysts surveyed at the end of last year.

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