Confident Talk in Volatile Economy

Stefan Kreuzkamp says traders might have this look on their faces for a while yet.
  • Why it matters

    Why it matters

    Volatile markets have been giving traders a headache since the start of this year. Mr. Kreuzkamp’s hope is that the global economy remains on a stable footing.

  • Facts


    • The 50-year-old has worked since 1998 in the investment funds department of Deutsche Bank, where one of his positions was head of bonds.
    • Mr. Kreuzkamp figures on 3.4 percent global growth in 2016, due in part to slower growth in emerging nations.
    • He expects oil prices to stabilize at $35 to $40 per barrel by mid-year, meaning profit forecasts for the 500 largest U.S. should start to rise again.
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Stefan Kreuzkamp isn’t one to sugarcoat recent troubles in stock markets. He says investors will have to endure big swings in share prices for a while. But in an interview with Handelsblatt, the 50-year-old strategist said he doesn’t believe the financial world faces the same dangers it did during the 2008 crisis.

Markets will continue to be driven by slower growth in emerging nations and low oil prices. But problems that drove the world’s last financial crisis — like the U.S. real estate bubble, billions in bad loans and related job losses — aren’t a factor today, said Mr. Kreuzkamp.

Mr. Kreuzkamp is responsible for investment strategies at Deutsche Asset Management and recently also took over active managed funds and the European region. The Deutsche Bank subsidiary is one of the most profitable at Germany’s largest bank. It manages the assets of institutional clients and mutual funds, with €777 billion in customer assets.

Mr. Kreuzkamp, how do things look on the stock markets?

The ups and downs in share prices are gripping our attention. Since the beginning of the year, stock markets are under considerable pressure. For one, the price of oil has fallen to a record low. Also, the economic slowdown in China is at the epicenter of the earthquake and is one of its causes. In other words, markets will remain volatile for a while. Things weren’t much different in 2015: Share prices developed quite well until the end of April, and for the rest of the year investors could only gnaw at the meat on the bone, so to speak.

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