In an interview with Handelsblatt, Wolfgang Leoni, chief executive of German private bank Sal. Oppenheim, says investors must brace for a very volatile 2016, which will increase the need for derivatives trading – and thereby provide opportunities for professional asset managers.
Handelsblatt: You wrote your doctoral thesis on currencies, so you must have a forecast for the euro or dollar.
Mr. Leoni: I may have written my 600-page thesis on forecasting currencies and used complicated processes such as spectral analysis in the process, but I’m still working on it. But seriously, we believe it is moving in the direction of parity, even if we have perceived a somewhat different direction over the past few days. The entrance into an exit from the zero policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) diverging from it will ensure the dollar moves in the direction of parity and strengthen against the euro.
Current forecasts call for a peak season. How will 2016 be?
Naturally, everyone wants to know where the DAX, interest rates and the price of gold will be at the end of 2016. We once showed our clients the banks’ forecasts over the last 15 years, which were the optimistic DAX forecasts and which were the pessimistic and what was the average. When you look at it, you know we don’t need an intense discussion now on where the DAX will stand at the end of 2016. You cannot predict it.